LOCKDOWN LEVEL Ver 3.1 [DAY 31]

TOTAL DAYS 96 – 07 HOURS 05 MINUTES

By the close of trade on Tuesday, the South African rand weakened against the US dollar.

  • Local data showed that South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted for the third consecutive quarter, in 1Q20, led by declines in mining and manufacturing sector. On the contrary, the country recorded a trade surplus in May, due to significant increase in exports.
  • New U.S. coronavirus cases could more than double to 100,000 per day if the current surge spirals further out of control, the government’s top infectious disease expert warned on Tuesday, although he was “cautiously optimistic” a vaccine would be available early next year.  California, Texas and Arizona have emerged as new epicenters of the pandemic, each reporting record increases in COVID-19 cases, adding to pressure on scores of potential vaccines being rushed into trials.
  • In the US, consumer confidence rose more-than-expected in June, strengthening views that the economic downturn was likely over, though rising COVID-19 infections threatened to derail the budding recovery. The S&P Case-Shiller home prices index maintained a steady pace in April, despite the spread of the coronavirus across the US. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, pledged to do more for the US economy as it battles the enormous fallout from the virus outbreak.
  • The recovery in manufacturing sector conditions in China continued in June, with firms signaling a further rise in production and a renewed increase in total new business. The upturn was supported by the recent easing of measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, which enabled more firms to resume normal business operations and a general improvement in market conditions. However, export work continued to fall amid reports of weak external demand. Nonetheless, business confidence rose to a four-month high, while firms expanded their purchasing activity at a quicker rate.
  • The yield on benchmark government bonds rose yesterday. The yield on 2026 bond rose to 7.68%. Further, the yield on 2023 bond advanced to 5.01% while that for the longer-dated 2030 issue rose to 9.24%.

In early trade on Wednesday, the US dollar is trading marginally higher against the South African rand at R17.3580, while the euro is trading 0.1% higher at R19.5059.  The British pound has declined 0.1% against the South African rand to trade at R21.4893.

By the close of trade on Tuesday, the euro declined against most of the major currencies.

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that the coronavirus-crisis will leave Europe with a big pile of public and corporate debt.
  • On data front, eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose on an annual basis in June. In the UK, economy contracted by the most since 1979 in 1Q20, as households slashed spending.

In early trade on Wednesday, the euro has marginally advanced against the US dollar to trade at $1.1238, while it has gained 0.2% against the British pound to trade at GBP0.9076.

Below is a link to a very detailed Covid-19 picture giving stats and graphs. 

 https://www.covid19sa.org/

 TECHNICAL

USD to ZAR Stats

Stats Data Last 30 days Last 90 days
High 17.4312 19.2637
Low 16.5249 16.5249
Average 17.1211 17.9633
Volatility 1.06% 1.11%

GBP to ZAR Stats

Last 30 days Last 90 days
High 21.7087 23.6064
Low 21.0034 21.0034
Average 21.4243 22.2827
Volatility 0.85% 0.97%

CNY to ZAR Stats

Stats Data Last 30 days Last 90 days
High 2.46195 2.71593
Low 2.33970 2.33970
Average 2.41729 2.53525
Volatility 1.04% 1.08%

MUR to ZAR Stats

Stats Data Last 30 days Last 90 days
High 0.43616 0.48522
Low 0.41299 0.41299
Average 0.42786 0.45009
Volatility 1.31% 1.29%

AUD to ZAR Stats

Stats Data Last 30 days Last 90 days
High 11.9817 12.1867
Low 11.5142 11.2075
Average 11.8054 11.7940
Volatility 0.76% 0.8%

EUR to ZAR Stats

Stats Data Last 30 days Last 90 days
High 19.6041 20.8571
Low 18.7813 18.7813
Average 19.2676 19.7760
Volatility 0.92% 1.06%