LOCKDOWN LEVEL 1

TOTAL DAYS 601 – 07 HOURS 30 MINUTES 

Vaccine rollout day 248
New cases 273
New Deaths 15
Recovery Rate 96,4%
Vaccines Administered 24,216,614

By the close of trade on Tuesday 16th November 2021, the South African rand weakened against the US dollar.  Infrastructure collapse looms as Water shortages, and Power generation collapse grips SA.  Eskom warns that loadshedding will resume at short notice.  With local government elections over the honeymoon period for coalitions fast running out it appears that hung municipalities are going to face re-runs or delayed council management being sworn in.

  • In the US, retail sales surged in October as holiday shopping started early to avoid empty shelves amid supply shortages of some goods. The US holiday shopping season got off to a roaring start. Strong growth in retail sales is baked into the fourth quarter ahead of the start of the holiday shopping season including next week’s US Thanksgiving followed by Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. There are nevertheless two important caveats. Sales were up 1.7% m/m last month, matching Scotia’s estimate. Sales ex-autos were up by an identical 1.7% m/m despite the fact that a 1.8% m/m rise in autos and parts should have led to a stronger headline gain than in ex-autos.
  • Factory output accelerated in October, as the drag from Hurricane Ida faded and motor vehicle output picked up, despite manufacturing activity continuing to be constrained by shortages of raw materials and labour.
  • Demand for single family homes advanced more than expected in the month of November.
  • US Commerce Sec Raimondo states China Not Living Up To Commitments In Phase 1 Deal.
  • The yield on benchmark government bonds were mixed yesterday. The yield on 2026 bond stood at 7.97%. Further, the yield on 2023 bond declined to 5.22%, while that for the longer-dated 2030 issue rose to 9.45%.
  • The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2021. The next release, which will report on data for October 2021, is scheduled for December 15, 2021. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $26.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $22.6 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $4.1 billion. Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in September; net purchases were $14.2 billion.
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday told lawmakers that she now estimates that the U.S. will reach its debt limit on Dec. 15, almost two weeks later than her initial forecast of Dec. 3. Those additional 12 days would offer Congress more time to strike a deal on how to lift or suspend the debt ceiling. If lawmakers fail to do so before the so-called drop-dead date, the U.S. government would default for the first time ever.

In early trade on Wednesday 17th November 2021, the US dollar is trading higher against the South African rand at R15.5636, while the euro is trading higher at R17.5784. The British pound has gained against the South African rand to trade at R20.8768.

By the close of trade on Tuesday 16th November 2021, the euro declined against most of the major currencies.

  • Turkey On Verge Of Currency Collapse As Lira Implodes, Crashes 4% In Minutes.
  • In the eurozone, the gross domestic product (GDP) advanced in 3Q21, in line with expectations as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic induced slump.
  • In the UK, job market withstood the end of the government’s furlough scheme last month, thus easing lingering concerns at the Bank of England about the risks of raising interest rates from their pandemic low.
  • Japan’s exports snapped seven months of double-digit growth in October due to slowing car shipments, as global supply constraints hit the country’s major manufacturers. The slowing growth shows Japan’s vulnerability to supply chain bottlenecks that have been particularly disruptive for the car industry and have clouded the outlook for trade. Exports rose 9.4% year-on-year in October, Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday, slightly below a median market forecast for a 9.9% increase in a Reuters poll. It followed 13.0% growth in the prior month and was the weakest expansion since a decline in February.
  • Indicators of future inflation are continuing their upward march. Prices charged by companies for the goods and services they produced jumped by 6.2 per cent in the year to the end of September, while their input costs rose 7 per cent, Stats NZ reported. Stats NZ said the increases in the two “producer price” indices were the largest in more than 12 years.

In early morning trade on Wednesday 17th November 2021, the euro slipped against the US dollar to trade at $1.1286, while it has weakened against the British pound to trade at GBP0.8562.